The ongoing shift in population dynamics between California and Texas has become a notable trend in the United States. From 2009 to 2023, a significant migration wave saw nearly half a million Californians relocate to the Lone Star State. The primary driving force behind this exodus has been the pursuit of more affordable living conditions, distinguishing Texas as a more economically attractive option for many.
Housing Affordability as a Central Motivator
The affordability of housing in Texas has been a magnet attracting Californians, according to insights from Realtor.com’s report titled “The Texas State of Real Estate”. This report highlights that Californians moving to Texas are 56% more likely than movers from other states to list affordable housing as their top reason for relocating. This trend is so influential that it prompted significant corporate moves as well, including Realtor.com’s decision to shift its base from California to Texas.
Texas’ Population Growth Projections
The consistent influx of new residents to Texas is set to have long-term demographic impacts. Analysts from Realtor.com project that by 2045, Texas could surpass all other states in population size. This projection is based on current trends of robust population growth in Texas contrasted with a forecasted decline in California’s population, painting a future where Texas could potentially become the most populous state.
Additional Factors Influencing Relocation
Beyond the allure of lower housing costs, several other factors contribute to the appeal of Texas for Californians. According to the same Realtor.com report, 37% of movers cited better climate conditions as a draw, 36% were motivated by job opportunities, and 31% moved intending to achieve homeownership. The report also suggests that environmental challenges, like the devastating wildfires in California which caused extensive damages and losses, are likely influencing some residents to relocate.
California’s Persistent High Housing Costs
Despite the migration trend, California remains a region with exceedingly high property values. In 2024, PropertyShark reported that 80 of the 100 most expensive ZIP codes in the U.S. were located in California. The Bay Area, known for its tech-driven economy, claimed 39 of these spots. Atherton, in particular, has maintained its status as the priciest ZIP code in the nation for the eighth consecutive year, with a staggering median home price of $7.9 million.
California’s Counterintuitive Population Growth
Contrary to the narrative of a mass exodus, California has seen its population increase. Between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024, the state experienced a growth of 0.6%, adding nearly a quarter million people. This growth has been attributed to various factors, including shifting domestic migration patterns, a return to pre-pandemic mortality rates, and a notable rise in international immigration. Despite a net loss in domestic migration, the influx of international residents has played a critical role in bolstering California’s overall population numbers.
